I can imagine it really easily for the foreseeable future, all that would need to happen is for the big corporations and well funded researchers to stick to optimizing LLMs.
Yeah that’s not the rest of human history (unless the rest of it isn’t very much) but enough to make concerns about AGI into someone else’s problem.
Free_Opinions@feddit.uk 1 day ago
Like I said; I’ve made no claims about the timeline. All I’ve said is that incremental improvements will lead to us getting there eventually.
davidgro@lemmy.world 1 day ago
In this scenario reaching the goal would require an entirely different base technology, and incremental improvements to what we have now do not eventually lead to AGI.
Kinda like incremental improvements to cars or even trains won’t eventually get us to Mars.
Free_Opinions@feddit.uk 1 day ago
Firstly, I’ve been talking about improvements in AI technology broadly, not any specific subfield. Secondly, you can’t know that. While I doubt LLMs will directly lead to AGI, I wouldn’t claim this with absolute certainty - there’s always a chance they do, or at the very least, that they help us discover what the next step should be.
davidgro@lemmy.world 1 day ago
It’s true that I can’t know for sure that they won’t lead to AGI (or like you say give clues) - however it’s definitely a scenario I can imagine, and that’s what I was responding to: The idea that incremental improvements Must lead to a given goal. I don’t think that’s the case. Here in particular I think it’s not only possible that it won’t, it’s even somewhat likely.
jrs100000@lemmy.world 1 day ago
Just like incremental improvements in the bicycle will eventually allow for hypersonic peddling.