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Comment on Wall Street’s AI Bubble Is Worse Than the 1999 Dot-com Bubble, Warns a Top Economist

Well, yeah. If I was a betting man, and I sometimes am, I would speculate that Democrats are going to hold the presidency next and it’ll be just in time for the stock market to crash.

All it will take is oneinvestigation, one major implosion (hopefully NVIDIA, OpenAI, or both) or something else for the underpinning to come loose.

Since Republicans are unlikely to launch any kind of criminal probe (or other kind of interfering action), they can most likely keep the bubble propped up for quite a while.

TBH, what I am more scared of is if the bubble doesn’t pop soon. With OpenAI dumping money into consulting services and investors openly declaring that the end goal is to achieve vendor lock-in, it sets a ton of companies up for failure if they were dumb enough to make all of their core services dependent on OpenAI.

Either companies keep paying OpenAI to keep their core offerings alive or they can’t, and go bankrupt if they can’t convert their infrastructure and services.

The sooner that all of these shit OpenAI sub-service vendors die, the better. Venture capital will start drying up and OpenAI will lose their “path to profitability”. (It’s almost sounding like how meme coins support BTC… I digress.)

Hell, I haven’t even touched on inflated company valuations and how AI LLM market growth is being fabricated, in part, by shoving AI integrations into every product imaginable.

I’ll shut up now, but my point is that I am just applying the same shit I saw back in 2008 where the magic product was sub-prime mortgages coupled with hyper-risky market bets. Obviously, there are differences, but the core failure modes at the same.

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timbuck2themoon@sh.itjust.works ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
I honestly don’t think ai can hold out that long. It’s 2025 and the mood is already souring.

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bobs_monkey@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago
If I had to guess, the entire reason they’re shoving AI integration into absolutely everything is to try to make it irreplaceably viable, if only to keep it relevant. The bubble pops when VC funding decides that maybe AI isn’t the holy grail they thought it was and the market on it tanks (bringing every associated stock down with it). Personally, I’m wondering if this bubble is what brings the house of cards down with it, because the amount of money that is all in on AI is absolutely insane, and for no good reason.

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- turtlesareneat@discuss.online ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
  That’s exactly it, they’re making themselves “indispensable” at the consumer level to hold on for dear life.
  
  But, on the other hand, you have companies like Klarna that are successfully using AI to replace, in one case, 700 humans or 3/4 of their tier 1 support staff. And every other company perks up at that. There is definitely a use case for AI, it’s still improving, and business will keep it going in some form (which will be great for the poor neighborhoods they put the data centers in).
  
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  - bobs_monkey@lemmy.zip ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
    Don’t get me wrong, I certainly think AI/LLMs have their uses, more as an aid to humans. Medical diagnostics, front line customer service, clerical, every industry could benefit from having a computer doing basic to even advanced level support. What we’re seeing now though is all these execs think that the tech is at the level where it can replace entire workforces, and that’s where the fallacy lies. Imo, humans should always make the final judgement, especially when these decisions involve affecting other people. It has the ability to improve and enrich lives, but the way things are going is that they’ll be used to make the line go up at the expense of people.
    
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