If you must get something from Steam, I'd get something with great time by price ratio, like Terraria, Starbound and Stardew Valley. Or also JRPGs like Final Fantasy XII.

But from your picks, Elden Ring is the one I'd go for, mostly because it's the one that picks my attention the most.

Otherwise, maybe you'd want to follow giveaway communities and alert profiles, e.g. here on the fediverse?