Insurance company are subject to regulations. They are lots of different regulations for different types of insurance and different states. The goals are to ensure that they are able to pay out when things go wrong, and to ensure a fair consumer practice. Generally all of the premiums they collect are supposed to be payed out and a large percent of the money is supposed to be held in reserve. They are supposed to be making money on investing the premiums.

It’s not about them winning the bet that they won’t have to pay. If they won that bet too much, it would be reflected in too high premiums, and competitors would just under cut them.