Comment on [deleted]
merc@sh.itjust.works 6 days ago
TSLA is down about 30% from 6 months ago, and down about 18% from 1 month ago.
But, it’s still MASSIVELY overvalued.
The typical, basic way to value a stock is with its P/E ratio. The price of the stock compared to its earnings per share. Even after this “bloodbath”, Tesla’s P/E ratio is approximately 175.
What’s a P/E ratio for a typical well run car company? Toyota’s P/E ratio is approximately 10. GM’s P/E ratio is about 35. Mercedes-Benz is at about 9.
Tesla just had a disastrous earnings report. The Cybertruck was the least successful automobile ever produced. The man most associated with the Tesla brand is toxic to the left, and the people who might want to buy a pricey EV are mostly lefties. To me, the highest Tesla’s P/E ratio should be at this point in time is maybe 10. To achieve that, its price would have to be approximately 1/20th of what it currently is. It would have to lose 95% of its current value. And, that would just be treating it as a reasonably well run car company that maybe had an off quarter.
Looking at it another way, Tesla sold approximately 1.5 million vehicles last year. Toyota sold about 10 million. If investors were sane, Toyota would be valued at approximately 7x Tesla’s value. Instead, Tesla is valued at $1.2 trillion, but Toyota is valued at only $200B.
Right now, 1000 shares in Tesla would cost you about $300,000 USD. If someone offered to sell me 1000 shares for only $3000 USD, on the condition that I couldn’t sell them for 10 years, I wouldn’t buy them, even at a 99% discount. I honestly don’t think Tesla is going to exist in 10 years.
I think they will but they won’t be making their largest profits from cars. It will be robotics, and only if they manage to beat every other tech company that will also go into robots…
Elon will get old soon too and what happens then with the company. It’s all based on Elon Musks personality.
Robots already exist. They’re used in manufacturing worldwide. Tesla doesn’t sell any to anyone. They are not even competing.
Did you think I was talking about robots that already exist? It’s kind of hard to miss that those exist I think.
You’re referring to robots that do not exist and therefore have not been designed or have been found to have a use for. Kind of hard to have a business that is supposed to sell a product it does not design, own or exist.
I think they will exist in 10 years but they won’t be making their largest profits from cars. It will be robotics,
These are the kinds of stories people who keep bidding up the price tell themselves.
IMO, if any car company is going to make a breakthrough in robotics, it will probably be Toyota. Unlike Tesla, they’re not faking things.
I dont own tesla so have no stake in what happens, and I believe more in Nvidia than Tesla for robotics too. We will see.
nVidia is completely tied in to the whole AI bubble. I don’t know if it will survive once that pops.
faintwhenfree@lemmus.org 6 days ago
But… Bro look at the potential, bro… It isn’t self driving now, but it will be THE self driving technology in 20 years bro… Just trust me bro… This is the time to buy broo… P/E ratios are measurements of a bygone era bro… Once TSLA monopolies self driving brooo… Stock price will have exponential. Growth bro… More than earth’s GDP bro… Trust me bro…
Malyca@lemmy.zip 5 days ago
We’ve got Rivian self driving at home, with lidar and safety.
TankovayaDiviziya@lemmy.world 6 days ago
Even if there is potential to self-driving technology, the wait is very long because the technology is still nascent and unproven. Are people willing to put money on stocks that won’t grow for years or years? It’s the same with space stocks. This just vindicates the principle of value investing: invest in companies that are already profitable.
rbos@lemmy.ca 5 days ago
Speaking personally I’m okay with a 20 year timeline on returns, but I think Tesla is not that stock.