ragebutt

@ragebutt@lemmy.dbzer0.com

• ⁨Comment⁩ on ⁨'Big Short' Michael Burry bets $1bn on AI bubble bursting | LBC⁩ ⁨⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago⁩:

  Puts on nvidia and palantir is what he bought, basically, with palantir:nvidia at 8:2 ratio so he has far more confidence palantir will blow up (in a bad way).

  Note that if you don’t know what this means, or if your only knowledge of “buy puts” is buying them via an app like robinhood, keep in mind you don’t know nearly enough about the risk involved and this could blow up in your fucking face real bad.

  Especially in the unlikely scenario AI crashes extremely hard (eg palantir goes to 0) and you have a naked put - using today’s closing price of $190 if you chose a strike of $180 your max profit is $285 per contract but your max theoretical loss is like 18,000 per contract if it drops to 0 (again, unlikely, but a more realistic scenario wherein it drops to say, $150 - you’re out almost $3k per contract).

  Options that are safer if you don’t want to get this involved in what is ultimately literal gambling: take a degree of separation. Instead of puts directly on nvidia or palantir puts on qqq, xlk, aiq, or some other etf that is made up of AI bullshit. Spreads risk but limits payoff. Use the strategy this nerd used: long dated puts. Keep in mind this is more expensive up front and for the retail investor you’ll generally max out 6-12 months realistically. He did 4-5 years out but that came with additionally complexity (especially for the billions in contracts he held) which meant tens of millions in payments to secure the contracts each year, which made his investors furious (though they ended up eating shit because he made them 730 million and over 100 million for himself on top of that).

  Just keep in mind that options trading has ruined many people who know what they’re doing and it’s ruined way way more who have no fucking clue but think they do (I’m in this category). For every dipshit that makes millions off of gamestop there’s probably a hundred people or more like the people from reddit that post shit like this Image

  Don’t end up like that person. There are so many of them on reddit. They succeed with a few trades, get up 5k, 10k, 50k, then get greedy and have mad hubris and believe they’re now “elite traders” so they piss it all away, often in a handful of trades over a few days/hours because the loss causes them to panic and try to recover with foolish long shots. The sad thing is you’ll read some where it’s like “I’ve been poor my whole life and I finally got a 30k inheritance, got it to 45k” and then a screenshot like that where they pissed it all away in a day to functionally hand it to some 1%er nepo baby hedge fund manager who is worth 15 million and has never wanted for anything in their life. Then they talk about all the debt they could’ve paid off and it’s like “what the fuuuuuckkk duuuudeee”

  Don’t buy naked puts and absolutely do not ever buy naked calls, which have unlimited risk, though I don’t know why you would in this scenario (or ever really). If nothing else please at least read this part.

• ⁨Comment⁩ on ⁨'Big Short' Michael Burry bets $1bn on AI bubble bursting | LBC⁩ ⁨⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago⁩:

  Expiration and strike price were not shared so unclear what his play is. For reference “the big short” was about 1.3 billion in total placed in 2005-2006 with an expiration around 5 years later around 2010-2011. It was somewhat standard for burry/scion capital and possibly still is so they could be playing this assuming the bubble will pop no later than 2030 (and paying 10s of millions a year to maintain those contracts) or they possibly have data to suggest an earlier expiration is worthwhile. They obviously won’t share this and public disclosures aren’t required

• ⁨Comment⁩ on ⁨Imgur's Community Is In Full Revolt Against Its Owner⁩ ⁨⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago⁩:

  1. Seems like it did okay for many years before selling to private equity that absolutely destroyed the site and filled it with obtrusive advertising

  2. There’s probably a middle ground between a project like lemmy (for example) and whatever imgur has become

• ⁨Comment⁩ on ⁨Imgur's Community Is In Full Revolt Against Its Owner⁩ ⁨⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago⁩:

  The equity firms that own places like this with tens of millions of users or more know that they will ultimately win simply because of inertia and momentum. It’s fucked because they’re preying on people’s sense of community and shit but that’s the world we live in now, you have to be ready to bail in the places you hang out online at a moments notice because at any moment some rich dick could be like “hmm, this could be a good performer in my portfolio, let’s get some intrusive advertising on there and cut services drastically”

• ⁨Comment⁩ on ⁨Nintendo faces legal action over ability to brick Switch 2s whenever they want⁩ ⁨⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago⁩:

  For the switch 2 it’s far more restrictive from the few videos I’ve seen where people have used flash carts and gotten banned. For one, a good deal of the games don’t exist on physical media even if you purchase physical copies. So an online ban means that if the console is ever reset for any reason those games are done. No updates obviously.

  Though I do think some physical games will work without needing a digital “receipt” at least to activate and play, so you are correct in that the console isn’t entirely useless after being banned, just significantly limited in functionality and restricts you from playing a majority of your game library (even if 99% of those games have no online component)

  That last point is the kicker for me. There should be regulation on this. If you’re sony/nintendo/microsoft and you’re pissed I modified my console and want to ban me because I might cheat online? Fine, I guess. If you want to ban me from making purchases because you’re afraid I spoofed the purchasing system? Ban me from making purchases, I guess. But you should never be able to ban me from redownloading titles I have purchased legitimately.

  Frankly the 3ds freeshop fiasco (which, unlike switch freeshops that rely on external servers, was a system that spoofed nintendos purchase authentication ticketing system and allowed downloading directly from their servers) has likely made nintendo overly wary. The counterpoint to this though is that nintendo handled that situation terribly. The freeshop worked for years. They sent a dmca takedown almost immediately for the software but obviously people kept hosting copies. It took them almost 2 years to patch and at that point the 3ds was basically dead.

  Imagine sony or microsoft in the same situation: their console is exploited with a softmod. They’re already probably working on a hardware revision to stop the softmod. But then an exploit comes out that allows modded users to download literally any game, update, or dlc from their servers, for free? They’d have that patched in weeks, maybe days (though tbf they’d probably also issue tons of bans here)

  So essentially nintendo is overcorrecting because in the past they’ve made boneheaded security decisions and responded to people exploiting them like idiots. That’s not anyone’s fault but nintendos and it doesn’t mean they should be allowed to be super hostile to consumers. Fuck the switch 2

• ⁨Comment⁩ on ⁨Spicy pillow 🧐⁩ ⁨⁨5⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago⁩:

  The problem is the adhesive does serve a purpose (mainly vibration/keeping the battery in place). Depends on how much you travel with it and the design overall (I’m not familiar with the steam deck but looking at the ifixit it appears ribbons are fixed to it so having the battery bounce around could be a problem)

  That said you can buy those pull tab strips and could probably use them here. I hate those things but why not? Better than what was there, I guess. Especially bc the off brand ones can be fairly weak adhesive

• ⁨Comment⁩ on ⁨Spicy pillow 🧐⁩ ⁨⁨5⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago⁩:

  Ehhh I’ve had some nightmare experiences with Samsung, LG (back when they made phones), Xiaomi, etc. a lot use pull tabs and when they work they’re perfect but when they’re old or you go just a bit too fast and they break you’re fucked and have to either heat it a ton, drown it in solvent, or slide a thin wire to cut it, all options suck

  Funny enough the new apple phones actually have this weird electro conductive adhesive that’s crazy simple to remove. The pull tabs are now terminals, you connect those to a standard 9v battery with alligator clips or whatever, and after a short bit of time (30 seconds iirc) the adhesive just releases and you can lift the battery out

  There are videos of it on youtube, it’s pretty cool and the one adhesive I can potentially get behind. though I would want to see what people say about it after a few years of actual use. The initial teardown videos when the 16 came out made it look impressive but who knows if it holds up after 5-7 years

  They also don’t use it for laptops so far. They didn’t even use it for all versions of the iphone 16 so it’s not exactly applaud apple time but if they roll that out to replace the nasty adhesives they were using for batteries across their product line it would be a great step in the right direction

• ⁨Comment⁩ on ⁨Spicy pillow 🧐⁩ ⁨⁨5⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago⁩:

  Isn’t battery adhesive the worst thing ever?

  I remember fixing a few macbooks that had batteries like this. The batteries were gigantic and the adhesive was crazy strong. Dumping acetone behind them with a syringe, heat, and gently prying eventually got them out but it was quite nerve wracking. I guess you can’t dump solvents in a steam deck though

  It’s so dumb. Adhesives make assembly easier but fuck over repairability. The only advantages are even distribution of pressure and vibration dampening, which are notable, but are not worth making the main wear item completely inaccessible and a nightmare to replace for the majority of people who don’t have experience with heat guns and sliding cards/thin metal to cut the stupid fucking adhesive that could’ve been replaced by a screw making the product 0.5mm thicker and 0.1g heavier (if that)

• ⁨Comment⁩ on ⁨Google shares slump as Apple exec calls AI the new search⁩ ⁨⁨5⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago⁩:

  AI absolutely is the new search but only because the major search engines normal people use have completely destroyed their core products functionality for advertising revenue

  AI will likely follow suit. In 5-10 years chatgpt or bard or whatever will give you a completely and obviously biased response promoting a product or service with a sponsored interstitial that is labeled as sponsored before you get the answer to make it seem like the obviously biased answer isn’t a gamed response

• ⁨Comment⁩ on ⁨4chan Is Dead. Its Toxic Legacy Is Everywhere⁩ ⁨⁨6⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago⁩:

  There’s a supposed message from one of the admins promising it will return

  If it does come back it will likely take ages given much of the 20 year old hacked together source leaked. If they simply relaunched as is it would likely go down again in minutes