Comment on [Frame] Landed on the waitlist, two friends as well (Europe)
julianwgs@discuss.tchncs.de 16 hours ago
It is very unfortunate that these website only aggregate these numbers after the lottery. These estimates are so dependent on having a random sample and this is not guarenteed anymore (people who got on the waitlist are more/less likely to visit such websites)
hikaru755@lemmy.world 15 hours ago
I don’t actually mind that, as it gives a worst case estimation and it is likely to be better in reality. Better than the other way around
julianwgs@discuss.tchncs.de 7 hours ago
What do you mean by worst case?
I cannot provide a good source (besides the book “How to measure anything”) for this, but probably 50 random participants would be enough to provide a pretty accurate estimate of waitlist wait time. That‘s orders of magnitude less than the data these sites have, but they are probably less accurate.
hikaru755@lemmy.world 6 hours ago
As you said these sites are likely to overrepresent waitlisted people. As a fellow waitlisted person, I’m using them to get an idea of how “bad” the situation is, i.e. to curb my expectations about moving to the reservation list at some point. Waitlisted people being overrepresented will make the situation look worse than it is, meaning I’m more likely to be positively surprised than negatively.